Tour de France 2025 Favourites stage 15: Fast finisher from breakaway

foto: Cor VosStage 15 of the Tour features 2,400 metres of elevation gain over just under 170 kilometres. Breakaway day or sprint finish? Our bet is on the fast men who can handle a few hills, most likely fighting for the win from the breakaway. (Slideshow route/profile)

With most of the elevation gain packed into the second half of the route, the stage could turn into a tactical test. The sprint teams will want to shepherd their fast men safely over the climbs without letting the attackers get too much leeway. A delicate balancing act.

The first 71 kilometres are largely flat to rolling. Then comes the Côte de Saint-Ferréol: 1.7 kilometres at 7.0%, quickly followed by the Côte de Sorèze: 6.2 kilometres at 5.5%.

After a descent and 10 kilometres in the valley, the steepest climb of the day, Pas du Sant, serves up 2.9 kilometres at a punishing 10.2%. From the summit, there are still 52.7 kilometres to go.

At first, the road rises gently for another 13 kilometres or so to the top of the Col de Fontbruno. From there, it’s a 34-kilometre descent to Villemoustaussou, before the final 8 kilometres level out. So, a finale at breakneck speed is on the cards.

Sprinters who don’t mind a bit of climbing will have the upper hand here. The likes of Van Aert, Girmay, and Groves. His Alpecin-Deceuninck team certainly has every reason to keep the break in check. With Van der Poel, they have another fast finisher in their ranks who’s possibly even better suited to a hilly course.

Then again, who’s to say Van der Poel won’t try to slip into the breakaway himself? If that pans out, his team wouldn’t have to chase at all.

The Pas du Sant, with the Col de Fontbruno in its wake, could present an ideal opportunity to hurt the sprinters and spark an attack, either from the break or from the peloton.

Favourites 15th stage 2025 Tour de France

*** Mathieu van der Poel, Wout Van Aert, Quinn Simmons, Mauro Schmid
** Danny van Poppel, Axel Laurance, Jasper Stuyven, Kasper Asgreen, Fred Wright
* Jonathan Milan, Tim Merlier, Kaden Groves, Biniam Girmay, Vincenzo Albanese

Another interesting read: route 15th stage 2025 Tour de France.