Tour de France 2025 Favourites stage 1: Sprint for first yellow

foto: Cor VosA 184.9-kilometre route with 1,150 vertical metres – stage 1 of the Tour de France is practically begging for a bunch sprint. So, which sprinter will do the first yellow jersey of the Tour in Lille? (Slideshow route/profile)

We have to go back to 2020 for the last time a sprinter claimed the first yellow jersey of the Tour de France. That day, it happened after a reduced bunch sprint – the roads around Nice were treacherously slippery due to the rain. Alexander Kristoff took the win ahead of Mads Pedersen and Cees Bol.

To find the last time the Tour’s opening stage ended in a full-on bunch sprint, we need to rewind even further: to 2014, when Marcel Kittel powered to yellow in Harrogate.

Tim Merlier is the man to beat in Lille. The Belgian is the most successful sprinter of the season so far. He racked up double stage wins in Paris–Nice plus the UAE Tour, AlUla Tour and Baloise Belgium Tour, along with victories in Scheldeprijs and Brussels Cycling Classic.

Jonathan Milan is also in great form. The tall Italian (1.94m) bagged two stage wins in the UAE Tour, added another pair in Tirreno–Adriatico, and won stages in both the Critérium du Dauphiné and the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana.

Interestingly, the Tour’s top sprinters from last year — Jasper Philipsen and Biniam Girmay — have yet to fully hit their stride this season. Philipsen’s only victories so far came in early March at Kuurne–Brussels–Kuurne and, more recently, in the Baloise Belgium Tour, while Girmay is still chasing his first win of the year.

Favourites 1st stage 2025 Tour de France

*** Tim Merlier, Jonathan Milan, Jasper Philipsen
** Dylan Groenewegen, Biniam Girmay, Wout van Aert
* Arnaud De Lie, Pascal Ackermann, Phil Bauhaus, Jordi Meeus

Another interesting read: route 1st stage 2025 Tour de France.