Giro 2026 Favourites stage 4: Sprinters or attackers?

fotobureau Cor VosThe first Giro stage on home soil is similar to the final stage in Bulgaria, as both feature a significant climb in an otherwise flat parcours. There is a difference, though, as the climb on the way from Catanzaro to Cosenza comes closer to the finish, reducing the chances of dropped sprinters to latch back on. (Slideshow route/profile)

First published on 2 May 2026 - updated on 11 May: weather conditions for the finale updated

The riders cover 1,800 metres of elevation gain over 138 kilometres, which makes for a relatively short stage, so the riders will hit the climb with fresh legs. Moreover, the Giro is only just getting warmed up and the third day was a rest/transfer day.

The climb is the Cozzo Tunno: 14.5 kilometres long and averaging 5.9%. After the sprint for KOM points, the road continues to rise gently for another 3.2 kilometres, and once the riders begin the descent, they still have just under 40 kilometres to go. About half of that is downhill, interrupted midway by a 2-kilometre stretch of rising false flat. Once back in the valley, the road climbs ever so slightly in the final 15 kilometres towards the finish in Cosenza, where timing will be crucial in the event of a sprint, as the finishing straight itself rises at 3.7%.

All in all, these conditions do not favour a successful chase by dropped riders. On paper, sprinters therefore have fewer chances than in the final Bulgarian stage. It is not unlikely that a group of attackers will fight for the stage win in the 4th stage. They could go clear in the opening phase or on the Cozzo Tunno itself.

Finale weather forecast:
The finale is expected to be dry and sunny, and the riders will have a crossheadwind of force 3. (We will update the weather forecast on Tuesday morning. For the current weather conditions, you can use the interactive weather map in the slideshow.)

Favourites 4th stage 2026 Giro d'Italia

*** Jasper Stuyven, Filippo Zana, Ethan Vernon, Orluis Aular, Ben Turner
** Kaden Groves, Paul Magnier, Tobias Lund Andresen, Johannes Staune-Mittet
* Koen Bouwman, Jonathan Milan, Michael Valgren, Guillermo Silva, Nick Schultz

Another interesting read: route 4th stage 2026 Giro d'Italia.