Tour de France 2026 Favourites stage 17: Sprinters or attackers

fotobureau Cor VosEarlier in the Tour, the 17th stage would almost certainly have ended in a bunch sprint. With just four days to go before Paris, however, that is far from certain. The opening phase is fairly hilly, and if a strong breakaway slips clear, the outcome could be very different. (Slideshow route/profile)

First published on 1 July - last updated 22 July: weather forecast updated

The opening phase is tailor-made for a strong breakaway to form. Anyone who still has the legs after nearly three weeks of racing has a golden opportunity to make a move that could turn out to be glorious at the end of the day. If the likes of Matej Mohoric, Kasper Asgreen, Quinn Simmons, Mathieu van der Poel and Jasper Stuyven (to name just a few) join forces, the sprint teams will have a hard time to keep things under control.

Featuring four climbs, the opening 60 kilometres are hilly indeed. The toughest is the Col des Prés (3.5 kilometres at 6.8%), while the other three are around 1.5 kilometres long at just over 5%. Nothing too severe, but after almost three weeks of racing, more than enough for a strong breakaway to build a significant advantage.

Around halfway through the stage, the riders also tackle the Col de Couz (8 kilometres at 3%), before the finale serves up one last obstacle. With just 3 kilometres remaining, the road rises for 2.6 kilometres at an average gradient of 4%.

All in all, there are plenty of reasons why the sprint teams should not take a bunch finish for granted. Then again, with the redesigned final stage in Paris, this could well be the sprinters' last realistic opportunity for victory.

Much will depend on the strength of the breakaway. If only a small group of lesser-known riders slips away, the sprint teams will almost certainly commit fully to the chase. But if seasoned escape artists such as Matej Mohoric and Kasper Asgreen make the move, it becomes a different story. It would certainly not be the first time that a so-called sprinters' stage at the end of a Grand Tour is won from the breakaway.

Favourites 17th stage - 2026 Tour de France

*** Mathieu van der Poel, Mads Pedersen, Dorian Godon, Mauro Schmid
** Olav Kooij, Jasper Philipsen, Kasper Asgreen, Quinn Simmons, Jasper Stuyven
* Filippo Ganna, Victor Campenaerts, Maxim Van Gils, Alex Baudin, Søren Wærenskjold

Another interesting read: route 17th stage 2026 Tour de France.

Weather forecast:
Another sunny day of racing is in store at the Tour. The riders will face a crosswind for most of stage 17, before turning into a headwind in the final 5 kilometres. Another sunny day of racing is in store at the Tour. The riders will face a crosswind for most of stage 17, before turning into a headwind in the final 5 kilometres. The wind is moderate and is unlikely to have any impact on the race.

Start: 29°C, sunny, north-westerly wind (12 km/h)
Finish: 29°C, sunny, north-westerly wind (11 km/h)