Tour de France 2026 Favourites stage 15: All-out on final climb

fotobureau Cor VosIn the 15th stage of the Tour de France, the riders head through the Alps. The route features four categorised climbs, with the final ascent by far the hardest. It is almost certain that the GC contenders will test each other, but whether that will also be for the stage win remains to be seen. (Slideshow route/profile)

First published on 30 June - last updated 19 July: weather forecast updated

Given the route, it is quite possible that the breakaway is allowed plenty of leeway, leading to a battle on two fronts. First, the attackers fighting for the stage win, and then the podium contenders trying to put time into each other on the brutal climb to the line.

The opening phase is perfect for an intriguing fight to get into the breakaway. The route gradually rises on false-flat roads over the first 22 kilometres before a short descent precedes the Côte des Rousses 6.6 kilometres at 5.1%. Even after the KOM sprint, the road continues to rise gently for another 9 kilometres.

False flat remains the defining feature for much of the following section as the road drops into the Rhône valley. After a small climb, the riders cross the river and begin the tougher second half of the race. First, the Col de la Croisette (4.6 kilometres at 11.2%) offers a taste of the steep gradients to come on the final climb.

Straight out of the descent, the Côte du Mont (2.1 kilometres at 8.3%) provides a punchy little effort, before the route descends in false-flat fashion towards the foot of the final climb, which is a brute: 11.3 kilometres at 9.1%. Anyone looking to hurt their rivals will want to do so in the first 4 kilometres, a section that kicks up into the double-digit gradients.

Long story short, apart from the Col de la Croisette, the run-up to the final climb is not overly demanding. A team packed with strong climbers – UAE Team Emirates – should have little difficulty keeping the race under control. The big question beforehand is: do Pogacar and his men actually want to? In recent days, the team has shown a few cracks, so they may well be happy to let the breakaway fight for the stage win this time.

On 14 June, Del Toro crossed the line in celebration on the Plateau des Solaison. That day, the Mexican won the final stage of the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and sealed the overall victory. It was the first edition of the Critérium du Dauphiné to be held under that rather unwieldy name.

Favourites 15th stage - 2026 Tour de France

*** Thymen Arensman, Richard Carapaz, Tobias Halland Johannessen
** Tadej Pogacar, Isaac del Toro, Paul Seixas, Einer Rubio, Felix Großschartner
* Lenny Martinez, Ben O'Connor, Derek Gee-West, Adam Yates, Valentin Paret-Peintre

Weather forecast:
Excellent racing conditions are forecast for the penultimate Sunday of the Tour. It won't be too hot or too windy. Yes, there's a chance of the odd shower on the final climb, but it's not expected to have much of an impact.

Start: 24°C, sunny, northwesterly wind (12 km/h)
Finish: 24°C, sunny with a slight chance of a shower, northeasterly wind (9 km/h)

Another interesting read: route 15th stage 2026 Tour de France.