Tour de France 2026 Favourites stage 4: Half the peloton rolls the dice

fotobureau Cor VosStage 4 of the Tour de France is one to watch. It is the sort of stage where half the peloton fancies its chances of the stage win, and that usually leads to a spectacle. (Slideshow route/profile)

First published on 18 June - last updated 7 July: weather forecast updated

The riders tackle 2,700 metres of climbing on the road from Carcassonne to Foix. A quintessential in-between stage: too tough for the sprinters, and not demanding enough for the GC riders to make the difference. This opens the door for a breakaway.

On the other hand, given the opening three days of the Tour, it is quite likely that the yellow jersey has already changed shoulders by stage 3. If so, chances are that it rests on the shoulders of a rider who will be keen to keep it for as long as possible. Someone with no real GC ambitions, but who will be relishing the chance to ride in one of the most coveted jerseys in cycling — as will his team. Expect them to do everything they can to control the race where possible.

Whether they succeed is another matter entirely…

In theory, the parcours is ideal for the breakaway. But if the yellow jersey’s team keeps a tight grip on proceedings and gives the attackers little room to manoeuvre, a reduced bunch sprint in Foix is by no means out of the question.

Should that happen, let's hope everbody stays upright. Very close to the line, with only 320 metres to go, the riders turn right to cross the River Ariège, before tackling a gently rising finishing straight.

Pure sprinters, in any case, will find the route too demanding. After a series of relatively straightforward hills in the opening phase, the second half features some tougher climbs. The Col de Coudins rises for 10.7 kilometres at 5.5%, while the Col de Montségur is 6.9 kilometres at 6.6%. From the summit, there are just over 35 kilometres to the finish in Foix.

Favourites 4th stage - 2026 Tour de France

*** Maxim Van Gils, Magnus Cort, Romain Grégoire, Mathias Vacek
** Tim Wellens, Michael Matthews, Mads Pedersen, Filippo Ganna, Jasper Stuyven
* Florian Vermeersch, Mathieu van der Poel, Quinn Simmons, Matteo Trentin, Jonas Abrahamsen

Weather forecast:
The riders face another scorching hot day, with temperatures expected to peak at around 40°C. Some riders cope with the heat better than others, but it is certain to have an impact on the race. The key question is which breakaway rider will cope best with the searing heat.

Start: 36°C, sunny, easterly wind (11 km/h)
Finish: 37°C, sunny, northerly wind (11 km/h)

Another interesting read: route 4th stage 2026 Tour de France.