Tour de France 2026 Favourites stage 20: Who conquers the toughest stage?

fotobureau Cor VosFeaturing the Col de la Croix de Fer, Col du Télégraphe, Col du Galibier, Col de Sarenne and a summit finish in Alpe d'Huez, the penultimate stage is, on paper, the toughest of the entire Tour de France. Will Pogacar make it another day of domination, or can the breakaway steal the show? (Slideshow route/profile)

First published on 2 July - last updated 25 July: weather forecast updated

Much will depend on how much help Pogacar's UAE Team Emirates-XRG team gets from other teams in keeping the breakaway in check. In the first stage to Alpe d'Huez, Evenepoel's teammates lent a hand. You would expect them not to do so again, having seen how they only helped the yellow-jersey wearer to victory without gaining much themselves. UAE Team Emirates-XRG no longer seems capable of controlling the race.

With that in mind, the most likely scenario is that the breakaway will be allowed to fight it out for victory in stage 20, no matter how much Pogacar would love to claim his sixth stage win, which would equal the record he set two years ago.

Stage 19 finished in Alpe d'Huez via the traditional approach, while stage 20 ends at the same location after an unprecedented finale. Rather than tackling the iconic climb with its 21 hairpins, the riders reach the ski resort via the Col de Sarenne. This 12.8-kilometre climb at an average gradient of 7.3% is followed by a 9-kilometre descent, featuring a gently rising section halfway down. The final sting then comes in the shape of a 3.7-kilometre kicker at 6.2%, with the opening 2 kilometres averaging just under 9%.

Before that finale, the riders must first conquer the Col de la Croix de Fer (24 kilometres at 5.2%), Col du Télégraphe (11.9 kilometres at 7.1%) and Col du Galibier (17.7 kilometres at 6.9%).

Favourites 20th stage - 2026 Tour de France

*** Sepp Kuss, Richard Carapaz, Thymen Arensman
** Tadej Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel, Tobias Halland Johannessen
* Egan Bernal, Juan Ayuso, Davide Piganzoli, Valentin Paret-Peintre

Weather forecast:
Rain is forecast along the route of the queen stage. If it turns out that way, the descents will be even more treacherous. It's not expected to rain heavily all day, but the riders are likely to be caught out by showers from time to time.

Start: 25°C, sunny, westerly wind (7 km/h)
Finish: 20°C, cloudy with sunny intervals, south-westerly wind (8 km/h)

Another interesting read: route 20th stage 2026 Tour de France.