The 20.2 kilometres climb at 6.5% is situated 138 kilometres before the finish and the route after the descent is as good as flat. That’s the equivalent of 90 kilometres.
Three scenario’s spring to mind. Firstly, a breakaway with some big engines on board ride away in the first part of the race and carve out such a lead that it’s undoable to bring them back. Secondly, a number of sprinters with a strongmen skill set latch on in the peloton while ascending the Simplon Pass before their teams bring the breakaway back while simultaneously keeping dropped sprinters at bay. Thirdly, it all comes back together after the climb and we’ll see a bunch sprint in the streets of Cassano Magnago.
Given the hardness of the Simplon Pass the last scenario is the least likely. On the other hand, if all sprinters are dropped there will be a lot of teams with an interest to chase down the peloton and the breakaway. On yet another hand, with one of the most prominent sprinters, Mads Pedersen, out of the race, a chase might not take off at all.
Favourites 14th stage 2023 Giro d’Italia
*** Alberto Bettiol, Michael Matthews, Magnus Cort
** Vincenzo Abanese, Tom Skujins, Jonathan Milan, Alessandro De Marchi
* Brandon McNulty, Simon Clarke, Bauke Mollema, Derek Gee, Davide Ballerini
Another interesting read: route 14th stage 2023 Giro.
Giro d’Italia 2023 stage 14: profile, route finale
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